Macroeconomic forecasting is too politicized. I don’t mean that in a partisan sense, though it may be so. The bigger problem is that forecasters spend most of their time thinking about central bank decisions and government policies. In the long run, those aren’t the most important factors. Not even close. What really drives economic progress is human ingenuity and the innovation it produces. In other words, technology. I use that term in its broadest sense: applying knowledge to make life better. Nowadays we associate technology with electronic devices, but it’s much older. The wheel was an early technology. We progressed to steam engines, automobiles, telegraphs, radios, airplanes, computers, and more. Each (and a million others) boosted economic growth. Their combined effect brought us to where we are today. Read more.