Investment Guru Stock Tips and Expert Advice

A little over a year ago, I shared a chart of the copper price writing, “A breakout above that [upper trend] line would suggest that inflation (even stagflation), after being written off as a relic of the past, could finally be making a comeback.” Well, the copper price broke down in an epic fakeout last year before reversing and breaking out, in convincing fashion, to the upside.

We are almost through February and (knocking on wood) the US COVID-19 situation is improving daily. The B117 and other variants haven’t yet made a big impact. Possibly they will, but as time passes more people are getting at least partial protection through vaccines. The “race” I’ve described seems to be going the way we hoped.

Readers often ask how these letters appear so regularly. The answer is we have a process. Normally, I talk to my associate Patrick Watson on Monday about the next weekend’s letter. We both go into research mode, verbally outlining a letter, and by Thursday I have an outline and some background research. This gives me plenty of time to flesh it out, so to speak.

Among the many strange, unforeseen changes of the last year is a new respect for Keynesian economic theory. Practically everyone in power now agrees that deficit spending produces GDP growth. They differ only on its expected magnitude and duration. The few exceptions are mostly outside the halls of power.