Thought Leadership

Last week, Dow Jones rose 1.05%, S&P 500 fell 0.6%, Nasdaq Composite lost 1.6%. The AI trade slumped following Broadcom and Oracle earnings reports. Oracle’s unprecedented ~US$10 billion quarterly cash burn and higher FY2026 capex outlook (US$50 billion) highlights the financing and execution risk in hyperscale buildouts, with reports of some OpenAI-linked site timelines slipping. Sentiment is also twitchy, an AI data-center REIT (Fermi) plunged after a tenant walked away. Broadcom sold off on guidance/backlog optics. IPO and mega-deal momentum is rebuilding, and bankers are positioning for a busier 2026 calendar. SpaceX is reported to be advancing toward a 2026 IPO, with scenarios ranging up to a ~US$1.5 trillion valuation and revenue scaling driven primarily by Starlink. Wealthfront priced its IPO at US$14. IBM agreed to acquire Confluent for ~US$11 billion. Disney committed US$1 billion to OpenAI alongside a character-licensing partnership for Sora. U.S.-China chip policy whipsawed yet again, the White House signaled Nvidia could sell H200-class chips into China. Additional signals of the “next interface” race include, Meta’s confirmed stake in EssilorLuxottica, even as Meta’s mixed-reality glasses were delayed to 2027, and Google guided to AI glasses in 2026. Microsoft committed $7.5 billion over two years to expand Azure regions in Canada, while the market continues to debate what “data sovereignty” really means. In Canada, the public-market backdrop remains structurally challenged, TSX issuer count has fallen materially over time (down 45% since 2008 to 678 by Q3). Take-privates and delistings have continued to outpace IPOs even as the TSX Composite has been strong. Private capital’s depth (continuation funds, private credit) is increasingly a feature, not a bug, illustrated by General Fusion’s reported $51.5 million raise (mostly SAFEs) alongside pressure from at least one backer to pursue a public listing path (potentially SPAC). In news pertaining to Sophic clients, Kraken Robotics demonstrated its KATFISH USV launch-and-recovery system on TKMS ATLAS UK’s ARCIMS unmanned surface vessel. Boardwalktech presented at the Q4 Investor Summit, reiterating its growth strategy and near-term catalysts.

Last week, Dow Jones rose 0.5%, S&P 500 gained 0.3%, Nasdaq composite was up 0.9%. Major indices are once again approaching record highs. With the Fed expected to cut rates Wednesday, investors will focus on rate outlook for 2026. SpaceX is eyeing a secondary sale at an US$800 billion valuation, making it the second highest valued private company in the US. Wealthfront is road-showing for a US$2.1 billion IPO. Chinese GPU designer Moore Threads priced a heavily oversubscribed US$1.1 billion IPO in Shanghai. Anthropic is reportedly preparing one of the largest tech IPOs ever, and exploring a private raise above US$300 billion valuation. Nvidia invested US$2 billion into chip designer, Synopsys. Marvell will acquire Celestial AI, for up to US$5.5 billion to deepen its optical interconnect/data-center stack. OpenAI’s partners SoftBank, Oracle, CoreWeave and others are on track to amass ~US$100 billion in related debt. Morgan Stanley is exploring risk transfer on AI data-center loans. Amazon rolled out its Trainium3 AI accelerator, with Anthropic already a flagship customer. Prediction markets provider, Kalshi raised US$1 billion at an US$11 billion valuation. Netflix’s proposed US$72 billion acquisition of Warner Bros./HBO will create a media giant. The deal’s large break-fee, potential regulatory hurdles, Netflix’s stock reaction and speculation of a hostile bid from Paramount could provide an interesting play for M&A arb funds. Meta’s purchase of wearable-AI startup, Limitless highlights its interest in media and AI devices, even as Meta reportedly plans deep cuts to metaverse spend to fund AI. Shopify reported a strong Black Friday/Cyber Monday, however industry anecdotes suggest increases in average basket size was driven more by inflation vs. more items being purchased. In news pertaining to Sophic clients, Kraken Robotics secured ~$12 million in new orders, and added seasoned defence/finance leaders to its board and executive team. Plurilock announced landed a US$1.24 million contract with a Nasdaq-listed semiconductor customer. The Company also promoted its long-time finance lead to CFO. Cybeats strengthened its advisory bench with an SBOM pioneer. Renoworks presented to microcap investors in Montreal

Markets staged a rebound last week, Dow Jones rose 3.2%, S&P 500 gained 3.7%, Nasdaq composite was up 4.9%. Late Thursday/early Friday, CME’s major outage halted trade on its currency platform and in futures spanning foreign exchange, commodities, Treasuries and stocks, freezing a handful of benchmarks as brokers pulled products. The Nvidia and Google pair trade came into focus, as Meta is weighing multi-billion dollar TPU commitments. U.S. policymakers are considering loosening export curbs on Nvidia’s advanced H200 chips to China. Trump’s “Genesis Mission” executive order aims to turbocharge AI-driven research. Amazon committed up to US$50 billion to AI-enabled U.S. government cloud data centers. Black Friday spending is tracking to record highs with AI-aided shopping, according to an early read by Adobe. OpenAI launched a Shopping Research mode. Klarna announced a 2026 USD stablecoin. Robinhood is deepening its move into prediction markets via a new derivatives exchange with Susquehanna. In Asia, Alibaba reported 34% cloud growth, pushed consumer-facing AI (Qwen app, AI glasses), and Pony.ai laid out aggressive robotaxi scaling plans. In news relating to Sophic clients, Legend Power launched a LIFE deal at $0.12 with full warrants at $0.20. Cybeats delivered 47% YoY Q3 revenue growth to ~$0.75 million. Kraken Robotics reported Q3 revenue up 60% to $31.3 million, gross margin expanding to 59%, and adjusted EBITDA nearly doubling. A $115 million equity raise leaves Kraken with $126.6 million in cash to fund expanded manufacturing and marine assets into 2026. Ionik grew Q3 revenue 18% to US$48.9 million with 56% EBITDA growth and strong FCF conversion, while steadily reducing senior debt. Boardwalktech reported 86%+ gross margins, cost cuts, and a path toward EBITDA breakeven as ARR rebuilds. Plurilock improving gross margin and reduced EBITDA losses, and is leaning into higher-margin cyber services and defense/government pipeline to target breakeven in 2026.

Last week, Dow Jones fell 1.9%, S&P 500 index was down 1.95%, and Nasdaq Composite was down 2.7%. Even though Friday provided investors with some respite, narrative has quickly shifted bearish in the past few weeks. Shifting odds of a Fed rate cut in December, could be one factor driving volatility, along with ongoing skittishness pertaining to the AI trade. Nvidia’s October quarter underscored why AI leaders keep funding the buildout. Revenue rose 62% to US$57 billion with growth re-accelerating, FCF hit US$22.1 billion, and it committed to US$26 billion of cloud server rentals over six years, making it one of the world’s largest GPU renters. Microsoft and Nvidia are also putting US$15 billion into Anthropic, which in turn will spend at least US$30 billion on Azure capacity. XAI is targeting a US$15 billion raise at a US$230 billion valuation. Amazon is selling US$15 billion of AI-linked bonds. At the same time, AI bubble anxiety is spreading. Sundar Pichai acknowledged “irrationality” in AI valuations. A Bank of America survey showed net 20% of fund managers think capex is excessive and >50% now call AI stocks a bubble, with AI crash risk topping macro as biggest tail risk. Credit markets are tightening at the margin, with tech bond spreads widening. Oracle CDS is now a favored hedge on AI downside, and several investment-grade issues seeing 40%+ order attrition at final pricing. Yet insiders are leaning in: corporate insider buying is running at the fastest pace since May. In Canada, Toronto-based Tenstorrent is nearing a Fidelity-led raise of at least US$800 million at a ~US$3.2 billion pre-money valuation. Brookfield launched a US$10 billion Brookfield Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Fund (targeting up to US$100 billion including co-investors) to buy power, land, data centers and GPUs, with Kuwait’s US$1 trillion fund and Nvidia as anchor partners.

Last week, the Dow gained 0.3%, the S&P 500 rose 0.1%, Nasdaq slipped 0.45%, with some tech names bouncing off lows Friday. Looking ahead, Nvidia’s earnings and the delayed September jobs report are likely to be key catalysts. So far, the usually strong November–December seasonal pattern has disappointed, though markets avoided typical September–October volatility. Einride is heading to public markets via a US$1.8 billion SPAC. Travel platform Klook filed for a NYSE IPO on 43% y/y revenue growth. Grayscale filed for an IPO despite lower year-on-year revenue. Grab led a US$60 million+ round into remote-driving startup Vay. Robinhood plans a leveraged, closed-end fund to give retail investors exposure to a concentrated basket of private AI leaders, raising liquidity and governance concerns. Berkshire revealed a new US$4.3 billion Alphabet stake while trimming Apple again. “Big Short”, Michael Burry is shutting Scion after loudly questioning AI-driven earnings quality and hyperscaler depreciation assumptions. SoftBank exited its US$5.8 billion Nvidia stake to fund an “all-in” OpenAI/Ampere strategy. AMD laid out an aggressive target of US$100 billion in annual data-center chip revenue within five years and a US$1 trillion TAM by 2030. CoreWeave sold off on data-center delays and heavy cash burn. Samsung raised certain memory prices by up to 60%. Anthropic announced plans to spend US$50 billion building its own U.S. data centers after disclosing it had cut off China-linked hackers who had jailbroken Claude. In Canada, Stingray agreed to acquire TuneIn for up to US$175 million. Clio raised US$500 million in Series G equity plus US$350 million in debt. Vistara Growth closed a US$321 million Fund V, 66% larger than its predecessor. Among Sophic clients, Intermap reported Q3 results with YTD revenue of US$9.0 million versus US$10.2 million last year, reflecting milestone timing in Indonesia, but reaffirmed 2025 guidance of US$30–35 million revenue and 28% EBITDA margins. Renoworks delivered its sixth straight profitable quarter, with YTD revenue up 15%, recurring licensing and hosting up 36%, and gross margin at 76% as it pivots toward AI-powered SaaS. Cybeats closed a $1.4 million non-brokered financing at $0.12 per share.

Last week, Dow Jones was down 1.2%, S&P 500 lost 1.6%, and Nasdaq Composite fell 3%, in its worst weekly performance since April. Markets staged a bit of a recovery towards the end of Friday, on hopes of a deal to end the US Federal government shutdown. With a lacklustre IPO window, private mega-rounds of over US$1 billion are outpacing similar sized IPOs YTD. OpenAI announced additional multiyear cloud commitments (including AWS) and reiterated long-term revenue ambitions, despite some unfortunately worded management comments. Banks are lining up a ~US$18 billion loan for the Stargate data-center project. Anthropic projects steep revenue and margin improvement into 2028. Palantir’s U.S. commercial revenue grew 121% y/y, blowing the rule of 40 out the water, once again. However, the stock fell, possibly on the “big short” investor Michael Burry disclosing a large bearish AI position. Microsoft broadened capacity via >US$10 billion deal with third-party cloud server deals. The Semi space remains active, SoftBank could be interested in buying Marvell. Policy risks rose as China barred foreign AI chips in state-funded data centers.In Canada, Shopify posted Q3 revenue growth of +32% to US$2.84 billion and FCF US$507 million. Shares dipped on higher AI/hosting costs and margin mix. Xanadu will list on Nasdaq/TSX via a US$3.6 billion SPAC, targeting up to US$500 million gross proceeds. Toronto based Beacon raised US$250 million Series B for an AI roll-up of “Main Street” software. 1Password surpassed US$400 million ARR while remaining FCF-positive. Montréal’s Flare added US$30 million in equity and debt, citing >160% ARR growth and global expansion. Volatus announced a $20.0 million bought deal at $0.60 to scale manufacturing, R&D, and defense initiatives. MDA Space invested $10 million in Maritime Launch, becoming both equity owner and strategic operational partner for Spaceport Nova Scotia. EdgeTI struck an all-share deal with Austal’s Digital Advanced Technology Division. Austal will own 9.9% of EdgeTI and subcontract initial work (~A$4.1 million ARR). In news pertaining to Sophic Clients, Cybeats raised $1.4 million via a non-brokered placement at $0.12 with IFCM MicroCap Fund. Boardwalktech, and Plurilock expanded client relationships, supporting revenue growth.