Thought Leadership

Last week, Dow Jones lost 2%, S&P 500 was down 1.6%, Nasdaq composite fell 1.3%, the third consecutive down week for major indices. Increased volatility could impact potential 2026 IO plans. While OpenAI is likely at least six months away from going public, and possibly longer, it could face a skeptical investor community. A potential 2026 IPO at a rich ~30x projected 2026 revenue, despite forecasts of negative cash flow until 2030, could give some investors pause. Several large IPOs could also divert liquidity from other areas of the market in the event of a listing. SoftBank is fueling its AI ambitions by seeking US$40 billion in debt, following the successful US$12 billion market cap debut of portco PayPay. Amazon tapped the bond market for US$37 billion to support its staggering US$200 billion annual capex plan. Nvidia injected US$2 billion into Nebius Group to scale AI cloud infrastructure. The shift toward AI efficiency continues to drive a painful reset elsewhere. Meta is reportedly weighing 20% staff cuts. Atlassian announced a 10% reduction to prioritize AI investment. Strategic M&A remains active with Anduril’s acquisition of ExoAnalytic and Zendesk’s purchase of Forethought. Regulatory friction is surfacing in other areas, Anthropic claims the DoD’s “supply chain risk” designation has already cost it over US$100 million in revenue. The legacy auto sector continues to struggle with the energy transition, as Honda took a massive US$15.7 billion hit amid a retreat from its North American EV strategy. In Canada, Sophic Client, Kraken Robotics closed its $402.5 million offering to fund its $615 million acquisition of Covelya Group. MDA Space priced its US$300 million IPO at US$30.50 and debuted on the NYSE. The Canadian federal government continues its massive push. BDC expanded its Defence Platform to $6 billion. The NRC secured $900 million for a new drone innovation hub. Xanadu is negotiating up to $390 million in government support as it prepares for a US$3.6 billion SPAC deal.

Last week, Dow Jones fell 3%, S&P 500 lost 2%, Nasdaq composite declined 1.2%. Nvidia is doubling down on infrastructure, investing US$4 billion into photonics leaders Lumentum and Coherent, while simultaneously licensing Groq’s technology for a new inference-specific chip. This shift was mirrored at Broadcom, where AI chip revenue surged 140% to US$10.7 billion, lifting overall growth to 47% despite sluggishness in non-AI segments. OpenAI could be officially prepping for a historic IPO, anchored by a US$730 billion pre-money valuation and a US$30 billion investment from Nvidia. SoftBank is betting the farm to stay relevant, seeking a record US$40 billion bridge loan to fund its own OpenAI ambitions. Meanwhile, a strategic pivot in OpenAI’s commerce strategy, moving from direct in-chat sales to app-based checkouts led to a relief rally for Booking.com and Expedia, which jumped 8.5% and 13% respectively. Anduril is targeting a US$60 billion valuation (roughly 14x 2026 sales), despite forecasting a US$1.2 billion operating loss this year. The Pentagon officially designated Anthropic a “supply chain risk.” Ironically, this spat propelled Claude to the #1 spot on the U.S. App Store. In Canada, Sophic client Kraken Robotics executed a massive growth move, acquiring Covelya Group for $615 million. The combined entity will have pro forma revenue of $365 million and 24% EBITDA margins. Canadian Defense startup, Dominion Dynamics committed $50 million to build a an “autonomous wingman.”

Last week, Dow Jones fell 1.3%, S&P 500 lost 0.4%, Nasdaq was down 0.95%, the weekend’s geopolitical developments could increase volatility next week. The market continues to grapple with the “AI as a headwind” thesis, as traditional software giants faced a reckoning. Salesforce and Snowflake stocks lost 5% and 2% respectively on decelerating growth forecasts. The most dramatic move was IBM’s 13% tumble following Anthropic’s claim that Claude Code can automate the modernization of 65 year old COBOL systems, direct strike at IBM’s high-margin mainframe services moat. Block co-founder Jack Dorsey said the company plans to lay off 40% of its staff as it believes AI tools can help a smaller workforce “do more and do it better.” Nvidia delivered stellar results, yet again including 73% revenue growth to US$68.1 billion. The company is doubling down on its ecosystem, joining Amazon and SoftBank in a massive US$110 billion funding round for OpenAI, which now equates to a US$730 billion pre-money valuation. Meta is diversifying its silicon supply, striking a 6-gigawatt compute deal with AMD that includes warrants for a 10% equity stake, signaling a shift toward co-designed, proprietary infrastructure. CoreWeave is seeking US$8.5 billion in new debt, but for the first time, it’s seeking a credit rating to appease wary lenders. Stripe is reportedly exploring a massive acquisition of PayPal. Netflix walked away from Warner Bros. Discovery, labeling the Paramount-Skydance bid “superior” and the financial math no longer attractive. In Canada, Sophic client, Cybeats Technologies secured a landmark OEM partnership with Keysight Technologies to operationalize SBOM management for safety-critical environments. CPPIB anchored a US$4 billion deal for Nordic data center operator atNorth. The Canadian federal government’s RDII initiative deployed its first $15 million into Ontario-based defense tech like Wolf Advanced Technology.

Last week, Dow Jones rose 0.25%, S&P 500 was up 1.1%, Nasdaq composite gained 1.5%. Software stocks had another rough day Friday, driven by fresh terminal value concerns driven by Anthropic’s new cybersecurity tools, which sent CrowdStrike and Okta tumbling 8-9%. Nvidia’s earning report next week will provide investors the next readthrough for the AI trade. ServiceNow CEO Bill McDermott is attempting to stem a 25% YTD stock slide by halting personal stock sales and initiating a US$5 billion buyback. It remains to be seen whether investors will interpret this move to support the thesis that AI is a tailwind, not a headwind for traditional per-seat SaaS models. AMD is mirroring the Nvidia playbook, backstopping a US$300 million loan for Crusoe to support chip sales. Meta’s move deepening ties with Nvidia via Vera Rubin chips signals another move towards co-designed proprietary models. OpenAI expects to burn US$17 billion this year alone, maintaining a 20% revenue share with Microsoft until 2032. Anthropic’s cloud payouts are projected to rise to US$6.4 billion next year. The battle for the “AI Edge” is moving to hardware. Apple is accelerating work on AI-powered glasses and pendants. OpenAI (via its Io acquisition) and Meta prepare to flood the market with smart speakers and watches by 2026/2027. Even the mobility sector is seeing CapEx shifts, with Uber earmarking US$100 million for robotaxi charging hubs to challenge Waymo. Macro tailwinds emerged as the US Supreme Court struck down Trump tariffs, providing a relief rally for Shopify and Amazon. On the bearish side, credit cracks could be forming in the “Nvidia-backed” ecosystem as CoreWeave shares stumbled 12% on reports that lenders are growing wary of below-investment-grade AI infrastructure debt. Blue Owl (a major investor in data center projects) gated redemptions from its non-traded business development company. In Canada, MDA Space is pivoting toward terrestrial defense with its 49North subsidiary, following Ottawa’s $6.6 billion industrial strategy.