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Sophic Insights
June 04, 2023: Buy In May, And Stay?
Last week Dow Jones rose 2%, S&P 500 was up 1.8%, Nasdaq was up 2%, and the small-cap Russell rose 3.3%. Market leadership remains concentrated in the AI, semiconductors and software space. 5 trillion-dollar companies — including Nvidia, Apple, and Amazon — have been behind most of the S&P 500’s 10% gains this year. T. Rowe Price has marked down its stake in Canva by 67.6%. Twitter is now worth just 33% of Elon Musk’s purchase price, Fidelity says. Fidelity also cut its Reddit valuation by 41% since its 2021 investment. Shares of C3.ai plunged 21% after its earnings outlook fails to live up to the AI hype. Twilio shares gain after a report on meetings with an activist. SentinelOne’s shares plunged 35% after disappointing results and guidance. Okta shares plummet after CEO acknowledges sales ‘uncertainty’. Salesforce CEO Benioff predicted an AI spending boom. Even as a number of prominent artificial intelligence researchers signed onto a joint statement drawing attention to the dangers of runaway AI. In Canada, recently laid off Shopify employees filed a $130 million class-action lawsuit. Westbridge reached definitive agreements to monetize 1.4 GW Alberta solar PV portfolio for an aggregate cash purchase price, between $217 million and $346 million subject to adjustments. Generative AI Solutions intends to raise up to $5 million through a non-brokered private placement. Canadian AI computing startup Tenstorrent (valued at $1 billion) and LG partner to build chips. Sophic Clients UGE International and Clear Blue will be attending the inaugural Canadian Climate Investor Conference Thursday June 8th at the Hyatt Regency Toronto. Sophic Client Kraken Robotics announced a $9.5 million contract with the Navy of a large Asia Pacific country. The Company also reported Q1 results, and reiterated guidance — for fiscal 2023, Kraken expect revenue to be in the $66 – $78 million range and adjusted EBITDA in the $12 – $17 million range.
May 28, 2023: We Like Big AI, And We Cannot Lie
Last week, Dow Jones fell 1%, S&P 500 was up 0.3%, and Nasdaq composite rose 2.5%. In a single session, Nvidia’s market cap swelled by US$184 billion, only Apple, Amazon and Microsoft have ever posted higher dollar gains in a single day, each by an extra US$7 billion at $191 billion. Analysts called Nvidia’s report “amazing,” “epic,” “stunning,” “unfathomable” and “jaw-dropping.” About six-in-ten U.S. adults (58%) are familiar with ChatGPT, though relatively few have tried it themselves, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted in March. Shares of Snowflake dropped more than 12% in extended trading after the database provider reported its slowest annual sales growth since its 2020 IPO and cut its fiscal year sales forecast. Meta was fined a record US$1.3 billion over EU user data transfers to the U.S. Elon Musk finally got approval from the Food and Drug Administration to start implanting his company’s brain chips in humans, Neuralink announced Thursday. China’s top Internet regulator said Micron Technology’s products posed a national security risk and ordered companies involved in critical information infrastructure to stop buying them. The chief executive of Nvidia, warned that the US tech industry is at risk of “enormous damage” from the escalating battle over chips between Washington and Beijing. Ford CEO Jim Farley and Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced that in early 2024 more than 12,000 Tesla Superchargers will be operational with Ford vehicles. In Canada, PopReach announced new US$115 million syndicated credit facility. Sophic Client UGE International reported one of its strongest growth quarters in its history, based on numerous metrics. Sophic Client Legend Power reported Q2 (Mar) F2023 financial results — Many new large opportunities continued to advance in our sales funnel, and we continue to believe we will hit our target bookings this year,” said Randy Buchamer, Legend CEO. A handful of deals could bring over $10 million in new potential bookings.
May 21, 2023: NASDAQ Outperforms More Data Confirms Slipping Private Valuations
Last week, Dow Jones was up 0.4%, S&P 500 was up 1.65%, Nasdaq rose 3%. More data confirmed last week’s data of falling private valuations: For the first time in more than a decade, returns for venture funds were negative for three consecutive quarters last year, according to research firm PitchBook Data, as investors finally began to mark down startups that had ballooned in value. Initial data for the fourth quarter also show a negative quarterly return. Tiger Global is looking to offload some of its startup stakes. Snowflake is reportedly nearing the acquisition of search startup Neeva. Software company New Relic is in talks to be sold to private equity. EU approved Microsoft’s US$69 billion acquisition of Activision. Buffett exited TSMC while hedge funds Coatue, Tiger Global bought. Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller’s family office pumped a combined US$430 million into Nvidia and Microsoft stocks in big, bold AI bets. The manufacturing cost of Apple’s mixed reality headset exceeds US$1,500 per unit. But internal projections give it the potential to eventually be as big as the iPad or the Apple Watch, as the company adds features and reduces the price with subsequent versions. Almost 5 million people are using Netflix’s ad tier. YouTube says revenue rose to US$40 billion, boosted by subscriptions. Disney is reportedly preparing a standalone ESPN streaming service. Instagram is reportedly testing a Twitter competitor — and the first leaked images indicate a summer release. In Canada, Sophic Client OneSoft reported Q1 revenue growth of 72%, and expects approximately 50% revenue growth in 2023and to achieve near cash-neutral monthly operations late in 2023. Sophic Client Kraken received $1.1 million of synthetic aperture sonar orders. Sophic Client Clear Blue Technologies received a $300,000 roadway expansion project in Oregon. Year to date, Clear Blue’s bookings are $4.6 million, of which $4 million is expected to be recognized in 2023. Canadian venture capital continues to fall back to pre-pandemic levels, according to CVCA. Despite seeing a decline in venture funding both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, Québec attracted more investment than any other Canadian region in the first quarter of 2023.
May 14, 2023: Private Valuations In Free Fall But Couple IPOs Coming
Markets looked a bit weaker by Friday’s close, as Dow Jones fell 1.1% last week, S&P 500 was down 0.3%, and Nasdaq composite was up 0.4%. The median valuation for growth-stage startups fell to US$90 million in the first quarter, a 75% drop from 2021, according to research firm PitchBook. Klaviyo filed confidentially for a U.S. IPO. PayPal’s profit rises 56% as expenses kept in check. Airbnb reported 20% higher revenue in the first quarter, which it credited to a roughly equivalent increase in the number of nights and experiences booked. Palantir soars 15% after company reports strong earnings and says demand for its AI tool is ‘without precedent’. Berkshire Hathaway cuts stake in EV maker BYD as Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger say they don’t want to compete against Elon Musk. Tesla recalls virtually every car it has sold in China. Shortage of AI servers prompts Microsoft-Oracle negotiations. Google CEO discloses ‘Gemini’ AI to rival OpenAI’s GPT. Metaverse could contribute up to 2.4% of US GDP by 2035, a new study shows. Apple’s Reality Pro headset still coming to WWDC, but Apple is ‘anticipating production issues’. Meta unveils generative AI tool for advertisers. Nintendo warns of big slowdown in Switch console sales. Netflix reportedly plans to cut spending by US$300 million this year. Sophic Client, Kraken Robotics received a $16 million order for SeaPower batteries. Sophic Client LuckBox announced April KPIs including Global Customer Deposits and Player Growth – the Company announced a major step towards profitability in April, by outperforming last month’s record player deposits, all with 40% less Marketing spend. Crypto mining companies like Hive and Hut 8 Mining are finding opportunities to repurpose their GPU-based equipment for another industry on the precipice of a possible boom: artificial intelligence, according to Bloomberg.